Trajectories

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Programme Title: Trajectories: Resilience Trajectories for a Future Proof New Zealand

Programme Leader: Dr John Vargo (Resilient Organisations Ltd)

Programme Overview

Through a process of co-creation with end-users and stakeholders we will produce and test:

  • a heuristic approach to measuring progress to resilience and projecting resilience pathways;
  • a resilience information utility that aggregates, organises, and facilitates sharing of pertinent data to support a range of evidence based solutions for resilience in New Zealand;
  • a prototype “Resilience Warrant of Fitness” system;
  • an expandable suite of resilience indicators that measure “all of community” resilience via a multi-capital model; 

This work will lead to a robust means to monitor the impact of the Resilience Challenge and its progress toward reaching the Resilient New Zealand vision via a set of co-developed targets.

A multi-capital model will ultimately be co-created between all work-streams of the Resilience Challenge together with Treasury’s Living Standards Framework team, MCDEM and other key players in NZ.

Programme Outcomes

Contribution to Challenge Mission: This multi-dimensional resilience programme will allow users to identify barriers and potential opportunities to accelerate progress toward the vision of a resilient New Zealand. It will provide a tool that enhances the ability of policy makers and practitioners to determine where to spend thier resilience 'dollar' most effectively.

Vision Mātauranga (“VM”) outcome: The research programme will support Maori approaches in measuring and monitoring resilience development that are consistent with the principles of Tikanga and integrated with Mātauranga Māori.

10-year outcome: At least 50% of New Zealand local authorities, Treasury, and MCDEM demonstrate significant and evidence-based improvement of disaster resilience, enabled by measurement against a nationally endorsed resilience framework and index.

5-year outcome: At least 25% of New Zealand local authorities, Treasury, and MCDEM are employing  evidence based tools to assess and enhance disaster resilience, measured against a nationally endorsed resilience framework and index.

Specific Projects within Programme

This Programme is formed by four projects:

1.  Resilience Pathway Heuristic: Development of a heuristic modelling tool to define and assess resilience and adaptiveness to dynamic non-equilibrium environments.

2.  Resilience Digital Information System: We will identify the data needs for creating resilience trajectory models and resilience enhancement tools with data owners and users. We will then create a repository and a federated model for accumulating and accessing the data.

3.  Resilience Indicators: We will identify a range of indicators across a multi-capitals model in a variety of settings, linking resilience indicators to data sources and identifying gaps for ongoing development of the suite of indicators. These indicators will allow users to benchmark resilience, monitor progress, and evaluate the efficacy of resilience interventions.

4.  Resilience Warrant of Fitness: This method will be used to pilot and prototype a means of holistic resilience assessment, developed from a representative and rapidly assessable subset of the suite of resilience indicators. These will be applied to underpin actionable strategies for resilience improvement on WOF outcomes to attain a user-defined benchmark level.